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Media outlook 2006: A reality check for business
By Bruce D. Murdy
Contributing Writer
If there is one marketing reality you can bank on in 2006, it is this: Traditional media is still very much alive.
There is no doubt that interactive and other non-traditional forms of media are attracting audiences away from television and radio, but it is time to debunk the myth that traditional media is on its way out.
The devil, however, is in the what-to-buy details.
We’re fortunate. We have a large professional media planning and buying staff and the tools and experience to guide our media decisions. For some readers, however, you are probably on your own.
To help your decision-making, here is an overview of what we see as the outlook for media in 2006.
Broadcast television continues to be strong. It is fascinating to see that television buys are estimated to increase by about 6% in 2006, as demand continues to be strong.
Part of this demand is because we are watching more TV than ever before, with TV usage up about 2% this fall compared with last fall.
So while there is more competition than ever before from the Internet, DVDs and portable devices, Americans are watching more TV. And this year’s Olympics and elections will put even more pressure on inventory.
Cable television will see similar gains. Some prognosticators suggest advertising spending on cable will increase to about 7% in 2006.
The dark shadow for cable—a la carte pricing for individual cable networks—seems to be a quiet issue, so we shouldn’t expect any major changes in how cable comes to our households.
Print media continues to be challenged. Most publishers of general circulation print media are struggling for “market share,” the share of a prospect’s media budget earmarked for print, rather than any significant budget gains.
What we have seen with some of our clients is a trend toward bundling, which are packages that incorporate print buys with other messaging—online, events, even television.
Print media also continues to wrestle with how to use its Web sites. The big issue for print media is whether the Web site should drive circulation to the print vehicle or be used for online subscriptions.
For this year at least, we expect to see a push back on print media—people want to see how print truly adds measurable value with strategic partnerships.
Online advertising will continue to be hot. The tough job about forecasting
12 months ahead for online is that in this medium, 12 months is a lifetime.
A year ago, who knew advertising on blogs or ad-supported video downloaded onto your iPod would be as popular as it has become?
What we see is continued growth and evolution and significant change as part of the medium.
Video created specifically for the Web is developing as fast as broadband and servers can support it. And where we see great growth for our clients is behavioral targeting—targeting Web users by their surfing habits.
Cost efficiency, highly defined targeting and clear measurement continue to be the strengths that keep this engine growing.
Non-traditional media continues to grow. Although it has yet to be measurable as an “industry,” it is clear that this form of communication, which truly is no longer “non-traditional,” continues to grow as advertisers search for new ways to reach consumers in an increasingly cluttered marketing environment.
Whether it is crop circles, wild postings, pizza boxes, graffiti sidewalk art or even selling your forehead so advertisers can tattoo a message there, we will see more.
Creativity, although not necessarily a quantitative measurement, is the key to getting your message noticed through non-traditional media. Imagination is the limit.
It is a fascinating time for media planning, and your company has to keep up.
If you are in charge of media choices for your company, you have a tough challenge, but one that is wide open with opportunity.
Bruce D. Murdy is president of Rawle-Murdy Associates Inc., a Charleston-based marketing, advertising and public relations firm. E-mail him at bmurdy@rawlemurdy.com.
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