By Dennis Quick
Senior Staff Writer

More than 8,000 new jobs are expected to be created next year in Charleston County, according to University of South Carolina economist Donald Schunk.

That number makes Charleston County the leading job-creating county in South Carolina, which should see a net gain of 28,000 new jobs in 2006, Schunk projected during the University of South Carolina’s 25th Annual Economic Outlook Conference, held Nov. 21 in Columbia.

Meanwhile, Charleston Southern University’s Center for Economic Forecasting economist Al Parish projected 11,000 new jobs for the Charleston-North Charleston area.

“We expect growth in manufacturing, tourism and retail, international trade (because of the port), government and construction,” Parish said. “Wages should be above average for many of these jobs. We think we are in a strong market right now.”

Parish based his job projection on a regional economic model he helped develop back in 1990 and updates each quarter, he explained.

Schunk attributed Charleston County’s job growth to the area’s attractiveness, quality of life and economic diversity, all of which contribute to the county’s rapid population growth.

A major factor in Charleston County’s job-creation surge is the Vought-Alenia North America aircraft assembly complex, where roughly 645 workers will be employed. Fuselages for Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner passenger jet will be assembled at the complex, located near Charleston International Airport.

Tourism, health care, legal services, housing construction, accounting and other professional and business services will account for most of the remainder of the county’s new jobs, Schunk said.

Following Charleston County in the state’s top five job-growth counties for 2006 are Horry County, where 3,300 new jobs are expected; Lexington County, with 3,200 new jobs; Greenville County, with 2,600 new jobs; and York County, where 2,300 new jobs will be created, according to Schunk.

These five counties will account for 70% of the state’s new jobs, Schunk projected.

Rounding out the state’s Top 10 job-producing counties for next year are Beaufort County, with more than 2,030 projected new jobs; Richland County, with 1,650 new jobs; Spartanburg County, with 910 new jobs; Dorchester County, with 890 new jobs; and Florence County, where more than 640 new jobs are expected.

All told, the Top 10 counties will account for 90% of the state’s job growth, Schunk noted.

Overall, South Carolina should see a net gain of 28,000 new jobs for 2006, Schunk said. That figures takes into account predicted job losses. Non-durable goods manufacturing, such as textiles and apparel, is projected to lose about 4,700 jobs next year after losing about 5,000 jobs in 2005 and 6,900 jobs in 2004.

South Carolina’s projected 1.5% job growth for 2006 will fall below the state’s historical average, Schunk predicted. Meanwhile, the state’s 6.4% unemployment rate—among the highest in the nation—should drop to 5.7% in 2006 yet still remain above the national average.

Personal income in South Carolina is expected to grow by 6% in 2006.

During the next five years, the state’s per capita income is expected to grow between 5% and 6% each year, Schunk said.

That growth rate is not fast enough, according to University of South Carolina economist Doug Woodward.

While the state has begun following the advice of Harvard Business School professor Michael Porter, who during the 2003 Economic Outlook Conference urged South Carolina to develop business clusters to increase its per capita income, the state in many cases has continued pursuing a “low-cost economic strategy” that includes low wages, low technology and low business costs, a “failed strategy” leading to low per capita income, Woodward said.

“We need to accelerate our growth so we can move into the middle of the pack,” Woodward suggested, comparing South Carolina with other states.

Woodward praised the Lowcountry’s cluster-building strategy recommended by Austin, Texas-based economic development consulting firm AngelouEconomics. In a report issued earlier this year, Angelou advised the Lowcountry to develop biosciences, aerospace, automotive, creative industries and advanced security clusters, all of which offer high-paying jobs.

Dennis Quick covers economic development for the Business Journal. E-mail him at dquick@charlestonbusiness.com.

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