By Rachel Pleasant
Staff Writer

If number crunchers are correct, retailers can expect a great 2006. According to an economic forecast released by the University of South Carolina’s Moore School of Business, retail sales in the state will hit nearly $30.4 billion in the first quarter of the new year, up from $28.8 billion in the first quarter of 2005.

The upward trend is expected to continue through the third quarter.

Retail sales are expected to reach $30.8 billion in the second quarter and $31.1 billion in the third quarter.

Here in the tri-county area the Charleston Metro Chamber of Commerce is also predicting a banner year for retail.

The chamber is predicting $15 billion in retail sales for 2006, up from an expected $14.5 billion in 2005.

“In 2004, we broke a record with $14.1 billion, so we are continuing to break records,” said Scott Moore, manager for the Center for Business Research at the chamber.

A number of factors will be at play in 2006, each contributing to stellar retail sales, Moore said.

“We’re seeing a lot of people coming into this area. People buy houses, and they need things to put in their houses,” Moore said.

Tourism also plays a role in retail, Moore said. The Charleston area is a popular choice for travelers, and many times, visitors want to take something home with them.

“Another thing is that in this community, there is tremendous diversity,” Moore said. “There are a lot of different shops and things to purchase. That’s a good thing for people who are coming to this area. There are so many opportunities to meet someone’s needs.”

A spot check of retailers here in the Lowcountry revealed caution but also optimism that 2006 will be full of black ink.

At Charleston’s People, Places and Quilts, employee Rita O’Loughlin said every two years, the local Cobblestone Quilter’s Guild hosts a quilt show called “A Celebration of Quilts.”

In March, the show will be staged at Gaillard Auditorium and practically guarantees a good year for People, Places and Quilts, which also has a location in Summerville.

During the two-day show, thousands of people will visit the venue. Some will buy quilts; others will simply develop an interest in quilting and are then more likely to visit People, Places and Quilts, or other local quilt shops to buy fabrics and supplies and take classes, O’Loughlin said.

Plus, the Charleston store will host a class for beginning quilters beginning in January, which is likely to increase foot traffic and sales at the store.

In Mount Pleasant, independent pet store Palmetto Paws will celebrate its third year of business in 2006, said Suzanne Lewis, part owner of the store.

Since opening for business, Palmetto Paws, which sells pet sweaters, treats and offers its customers a bathing area complete with soaps and towels, has steadily increased its clientele.

In 2006, Lewis said, it is possible that the Charleston area could see a second Palmetto Paws location, possibly in West Ashley.

Also in Mount Pleasant is Blush, an independent retailer that targets girls and women.

Blush opened on June 10 but has seen a steady increase in customer traffic, said Cindy Masters, who is one of three partners in the business. Masters couldn’t say how much the store would like to see in sales in 2006, but she said the new year will be largely focused on raising the store’s profile.

Of course, before retailers can really begin to focus on 2006, they’ve got to finish 2005 and the holiday shopping season that will be in full swing in just a matter of days.

According to an economic forecast recently released by the chamber and Charleston South University’s Center for Economic

Forecasting, taxed retail sales in Charleston, Berkeley and Dorchester counties are expected to reach nearly $3.8 billion in the fourth quarter of this year.

Rachel Pleasant is a staff writer for the Business Journal. E-mail her at rpleasant@charlestonbusiness.com.

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