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Forecaster: Tourism industry to have strong 4th quarter
By Dennis Quick
Senior Staff Writer
Despite a predicted drop in attendance at area tourist attractions, the Lowcountry’s tourism industry is poised for a robust fourth quarter, according to a joint economic forecast by Charleston Southern University and the Charleston Metro Chamber of Commerce.
More than 64% of the area’s hotel rooms are expected to be occupied during fourth quarter 2005, compared with 59.5% during the same period last year, the study points out.
The number of room nights sold this fourth quarter should reach 802, an increase of more than 4% over fourth quarter 2004.
The average daily hotel room rates are expected to reach $130 this fourth quarter, compared with $115.60 during last year’s fourth quarter, a jump of more than 13.6%.
“More visitors are coming here, and there is a higher percentage of repeat visitors,” said Mary Graham, vice president of the chamber’s public policy and regional advancement department.
Even as gasoline prices reached $3.50 per gallon in September, leaders in the local hospitality industry anticipated a healthy season.
“We’re still looking forward to a great fall,” said Mitch Linder, president of the Greater Charleston Hotel & Motel Association.
Linder and others in the Lowcountry noted that September’s gasoline price surge caused few reservation cancellations.
“We have not had a big rush of calls with people saying they’re not coming,” said Tripp Hays, sales and marketing director for the Mills House Hotel and past president of the Greater Charleston Hotel & Motel Association. He added upcoming visitors to the Lowcountry have said they were more concerned about gasoline availability in the Charleston area rather than gasoline prices.
The forecast for the area’s attractions is a “mixed bag” for the tourism industry as a whole, said Scott Moore, manager of the chamber’s Center for Business Research.
While fourth-quarter attendance at traditional attractions like the S.C. Aquarium, Charleston’s historic district and Fort Sumter are expected to drop more than 9% compared with fourth-quarter 2004, the reason is that visitors to the Lowcountry are finding different ways to spend their time here, Moore explained. Shopping, dining and going to the beach have, in many cases, replaced traditional sightseeing.
The aquarium, which offers free admission to approximately 10,000 school children each year, is bracing for a fourth-quarter decline in those numbers due to school district fuel shortages.
“We are anticipating that two factors will negatively affect the aquarium’s attendance numbers in the last quarter of 2005,” said Catherine Marshall, the aquarium’s marketing director.
“The first factor is that many school districts in South Carolina, North Carolina and Georgia have put all field trips on hold,” Marshall explained. “This will significantly impact the number of school children who visit the aquarium this fall.
“The second factor is the price of gas, which may impact us in a couple of ways,” Marshall continued. “If fewer tourists visit Charleston, we’ll see fewer out-of-town visitors at the aquarium. Plus, as families spend more of their budget dollars on gas and heating fuel, they have less discretionary income to spend on entertainment.”
Nevertheless, the Lowcountry’s tourism market is “maturing,” offering visitors alternatives to the area’s traditional attractions, and this accounts for the industry’s projected strong fourth-quarter, Graham said.
Dennis Quick covers hospitality and tourism for the Business Journal. E-mail him at dquick@charlestonbusiness.com.
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