Daily Journal column: The future of Facebook

With Facebook’s growth slowing and its stock price at a 35% drop since its May 18 IPO, how bright is its future really?

To add insult to injury, Morgan Stanley reported that it began selling the stock short as early as June 5, just weeks after its initial IPO.

The company, along with the investment banks that led the IPO, is already the subject of at least two shareholder lawsuits. Plus, companies closely tied to Facebook, like social game maker Zynga, have taken a beating on Wall Street when negative reports are published on Facebook.

April Moore, creative director at Rawle Murdy Associates Inc.
April Moore, creative director at Rawle Murdy Associates Inc.
Perhaps one of the biggest blows to Facebook was the report that seemed to be delivered hand-in-hand with its IPO. The announcement that General Motors was no longer willing to allocate $10 million of its $1.8 billion annual advertising budget toward Facebook ads.

After nearly a month on the market, Facebook seems to have a very rocky start.

Enter Apple. At its annual developer’s event June 11, Apple announced that it will be integrating more social networking services, including Facebook, into its new operating system software. Both Apple and Facebook were expected to see a lift from the announcement, but at the end of the day both stocks closed with losses.

So, the rocky start seems to continue. And it appears that one of the world’s most popular networking service, famous for connecting friends and family, is actually losing a few friends itself. Is this a prelude to a slow death? Is the social media IPO darling of Wall Street going to find itself out on the street?

Or is it all just unfortunate timing?

More than half of all Americans already use Facebook. So, the recent slowdown in its growth is expected. Or should be. Unfortunately, the coincidental timing of the report on its slowed growth was very bad timing for its IPO.

GM’s pullout from Facebook ads might be less of a reflection of effectiveness of the Facebook product and more of a reflection of GM’s lack of ability to meaningfully connect with its audience and/or its inability to convert a lead into a customer.

Again, it’s unfortunate timing for Facebook. But, this doesn’t mean Facebook ads are generally ineffective.

We just have to look to Comscore’s latest report on Facebook advertising to see the results for several top companies that are finding success with the social network.

Comscore’s research looked at Target Corp., and showed that Facebook members who “like” the retailer, along with their friends, bought at Target 21% more frequently, including both in-store and online purchases. Users who saw unpaid marketing messages on the social network about Starbucks Corp. bought an item at the coffee chain within four weeks, 38% more often than those who didn’t, said Andrew Lipsman, vice president of industry analysis at Comscore. The Facebook members included those who “liked” Starbucks and their friends.

What’s next for Facebook? The reports on what’s coming next from Facebook seem to be under wraps right now. But, whatever the news, the future of Facebook is certainly not set in stone yet.

April Moore is the creative director at Rawle Murdy Associates Inc., a Charleston-based marketing, advertising and public relations firm. Contact her at amoore@rawlemurdy.com.

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Comments:

Added: 21 Aug 2012

Potential and present advertisers should not, repeat, should NOT draw a correlation between Facebook's IPO/stock price versus the audience it reaches. To do so would be to compare apples with onions. As of late, Facebook is seeing more of a resurgence with Baby Boomers, who as advertisers will note, have been becoming somewhat harder to reach via traditional advertising. The reasons why this is so outnumber space and time considerations for this reply, but they include both sociological as well as economics. Facebook will be here to stay for a long, long time. Regards, J.D. Kinman retired creative director Dallas, Texas

JD Kinman


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