By Mike Fitts
mfitts@scbiznews.com
Published Dec. 2, 2009

South Carolina’s economy should show some recovery in growth and jobs in 2010, but unemployment will remain stubbornly high, according to economists presenting at a conference today at the University of South Carolina.

“Many of our economic indicators suggest that South Carolina’s long recession is now over,” said USC economist Doug Woodward. “Continued growth will depend on moderate energy and fuel costs, a housing rebound and a steady stock market. Consumers, who have been sharply cutting spending, will have to get back in the market to have a vigorous recovery.”

The state’s job base should improve by 0.2%, according to the research of Woodward and Paulo Guimaraes, both of USC’s Moore School of Business. They are to present their findings at USC’s annual Economic Outlook Conference this afternoon, which also will feature a panel discussion of what South Carolina can expect from 2010.

“The projected small rise in job growth will not be high enough to make much of a dent in the state’s historically high unemployment rate,” Woodward said. The state’s unemployment rate could stay above 10% for another year, he said.

Manufacturing employment in particular is projected to continue falling. “Boeing will definitely have an impact in North Charleston, but the state as a whole cannot count on the construction sector contributing many jobs, as it has in past recoveries,” Woodward said.

Personal income should climb by 3.3% in 2010, versus a decline of 1.4% in 2009.

In a statement, Woodward emphasized that holiday sales would say a great deal about the state’s growth prospects and that there’s still much uncertainty in economic forecasting.

“Another financial shock and the whole economy could be in trouble again. We could face a relapse. Even so, we diagnose a healthy recovery for early 2010. The positive effects of the federal economic stimulus will be felt through midyear.”

Housing, office and retail construction could start to show signs of life, Woodward said. Single-family housing activity should expand, but from a low base, he said.

A less expensive dollar could help in two ways, Woodward said. S.C. exporters could find their products to be more competitively priced internationally, and tourists from Canada and overseas could see the state as a better bargain in 2010.

“With the falling dollar and higher energy prices going into the economic recovery, there will be upward pressure on consumer price inflation in 2010,” Woodward said.